Bitcoin Approaching Euphoria Threshold, What Happens Next

Bitcoin Approaching Euphoria Threshold, What Happens Next?

Bitcoin approaching Euphoria threshold as indicated by the On-chain data. This crucial level is determined by multiplying the Realized Price for long-term holders (LTH).

Bitcoin Approaching Euphoria Threshold

Bitcoin is trading close to a critical level that historically marks the boundary of the market’s ‘euphoria’ phase. According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s recent consolidation is near the historical boundary between the ‘equilibrium’ and ‘euphoria’ phases of the bull market.

The Realized Price is an on-chain metric that tracks the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors. When Bitcoin’s spot price exceeds this indicator, it implies that investors hold a net amount of unrealized profit. Conversely, if the spot price is below this metric, it suggests that losses dominate the blockchain.

LTHs, Bitcoin Investors

Currently, the Realized Price specifically for LTHs is of particular interest. LTHs are Bitcoin investors who have held their coins for over 155 days without selling or transferring them on the network. The following chart illustrates the trend in the Realized Price for LTHs, along with a few of its multiples, over the past decade:

As shown in the graph, the Bitcoin LTH Realized Price is around $21,800, significantly lower than the current spot price of the asset. This indicates that LTHs are currently holding substantial profits. Statistically, the longer an investor holds their Bitcoin, the less likely they are to sell at any point.

Consequently, LTHs, who tend to hold for extended periods, include the most steadfast holders in the market. This group typically does not react easily to market events such as rallies or crashes. However, when their gains become very large, even these resolute HODLers might be tempted by the prospect of profit-taking.

Euphoria Phase History in Bitcoin Market

Historically, this profit-taking tendency has occurred as the Bitcoin market approached the ‘euphoria’ phase. Glassnode defines this phase as when the price breaks above the 3.5x multiplier of the LTH Realized Price.

This critical level currently stands at $76,400, slightly above the recent consolidation range in which Bitcoin has been trading. The chart shows that during the past two bull runs, Bitcoin’s price surged significantly after surpassing this level.

It remains to be seen how long it will take for Bitcoin to breach this boundary, transitioning from the current ‘equilibrium’ phase and potentially filling investors with euphoria. Recently, Bitcoin has declined toward the lower end of its consolidation range, trading around $61,000. The market is keenly watching to see if Bitcoin can break through this critical level and ignite another significant rally.


To conclude, Bitcoin approaching Euphoria threshold, marked by critical on-chain metrics, suggests the potential for significant market movement. Investors are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can breach this level, which could lead to a major rally and mark the transition from the current ‘equilibrium’ phase to a period of heightened market excitement.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *