Will ETH ETFs Propel ETH to $4K or Pull It Down to $2.4K

Will ETH ETFs Propel ETH to $4K or Pull It Down to $2.4K?

Expectations surrounding the ETH ETFs have been modest, with analysts holding mixed opinions. At press time, ETH has dipped to $3.2K, marking an 18% decline from its recent high of $3.9K following the partial approval of ETFs in late May.


With the potential ETF launch just days away, Andrew Kang, founder of the crypto fund Mechanism Capital, forecasts a further decline in ETH to $2.4K. His recent analysis stated, “Before the ETF launch, I expect ETH to trade between $3,000 and $3,800. After the ETF launch, my expectation is a range of $2,400 to $3,000.”

Kang pointed out two main reasons for his prediction of low ETF flows in the initial weeks. Firstly, the SEC’s unexpected approval in late May left insufficient time to persuade major ETH holders to transition to the ETF.

Secondly, the shift to ETFs does not offer the staking yield benefits that current ETH holders enjoy. Consequently, Kang estimates that the ETH ETF could attract only about 30% of the flows seen in BTC ETFs over the first six months, approximately $1.5 – $4.5 billion.

Ethereum’s Negative Sentiment

Quinn Thompson, founder of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, highlighted that ETH’s negative sentiment is exacerbated by its comparison to BTC and Solana [SOL]. Thompson explained that SOL’s significant repricing relative to ETH strengthens the ‘ETH killer’ narrative.

“SOL has repriced six times higher relative to ETH, making it a much tougher comparison,” he said. Thompson also noted that the attention on BTC ETFs and the growing interest in underpriced SOL have further marginalized ETH, causing it to experience a ‘middle child syndrome.’ Additionally, a liquidity crunch has worsened the situation.

“Overall prices have been stagnant to down for three months, and market sentiment is low due to a macro/liquidity blip,” Thompson added. Despite the prevailing negative sentiment, some analysts, such as those from QCP Capital, maintain a bullish outlook ahead of the anticipated ETF launch in early July. They noted,

“ETH bullishness persists with ETH vols trading at an 18% premium to BTC in expectation of an imminent ETH spot ETF launch.” QCP analysts had previously projected a possible retest of the $4K level post-ETF launch. As of press time, ETH remains at $3.2K, and the forthcoming ETF launch will likely be a key factor in determining its price direction and volatility.


To conclude, while the impending ETH ETFs launch brings mixed predictions and potential volatility, the market remains divided between bearish and bullish sentiments. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum stabilizes or faces further decline, as analysts and investors closely monitor ETF flows and broader market reactions.

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