Analysts Predict 75% Likelihood of Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Amid Potential SEC Shift

Analysts Predict 75% Likelihood of Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Amid Potential SEC Shift

Analysts have raised their expectations for the Spot Ethereum ETF approval driven by growing optimism regarding regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Spot Ethereum ETF Approval

Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, ETF analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently adjusted their probability of spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%. Balchunas explained this renewed confidence in a statement.

“There’s increasing chatter that the SEC might be reversing its stance on this highly politicized issue, leading to a scramble within the industry. However, we are capping our probability at 75% until we see more concrete developments, such as filing updates,” Balchunas shared on his X (formerly Twitter) account.

The SEC has reportedly requested that asset managers interested in listing spot Ethereum ETFs update their 19b-4 filings ahead of the upcoming deadline. This move has fueled speculation and activity within the industry as stakeholders anticipate a potential approval.

Market Reactions and Predictions

Balchunas also referenced a statement from Nate Geraci of ETF Store, reported by BeInCrypto, predicting that the SEC would approve the 19b-4 filings and then delay the S-1 forms. The 19b-4 filings propose rule changes needed to list new products, like spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs, on stock exchanges.

In contrast, the S-1 registration forms provide detailed information about new securities offered to the public, including fund structure, management, and investment strategy. Both forms must receive approval for the ETFs to launch officially.

Seyffart noted that their increased odds pertain specifically to the 19b-4 deadline on May 23, citing VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETFs as a focal point. “It could be weeks to months before we see S-1 approvals and, consequently, a live Ethereum ETF,” he added.

This development is notable given that Balchunas and Seyffart had been lowering their approval odds in recent months. Additionally, industry figures like Jan van Eck, CEO of asset manager VanEck, have expressed skepticism regarding spot Ethereum ETF approval.

Impact on Ethereum Price

Following this news, Ethereum (ETH) experienced a significant price increase. According to BeInCrypto’s data, ETH surged by 19.98% in the last 24 hours, trading at $3,676 at the time of writing. The market enthusiasm also extended to Ethereum ecosystem altcoins, with Polygon (MATIC) and Optimism (OP) rising by 9.4% and 19.7%, respectively, over the same period.


To conclude, the increased probability of spot Ethereum ETF approval has revitalized market enthusiasm. As the SEC’s decision approaches, industry stakeholders are closely monitoring developments, hopeful for a favorable outcome.

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